EconomyEditor's PickPSEi to stay at 7,000 level ahead of GDP report

January 22, 2023
BW FILE PHOTO

THE MAIN INDEX may move sideways this week and remain at the 7,000 level as investors await the release of full-year 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data and corporate earnings.

The 30-member Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went down by 5.39 points or 0.07% to close at 7,056.52 on Friday, while the broader all shares index lost 3.82 points or 0.1% to 3,682.86.

Week on week, the PSEi went up by 104.98 points or 1.51% from 6,951.54 on Jan. 13.

“The local market has already been rallying for the past five weeks, driven by optimism towards the local economy’s prospects for 2023,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

“This past week however, the local market is seen to be having a hard time getting past its 7,000-7,100 resistance range as selling pressures strengthen while new catalysts are yet to be found,” Mr. Tantiangco added.

Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note that bulls drove trading last week amid an improving inflation outlook, which could boost corporate earnings.

For this week, analysts expect the local bourse to remain at the 7,000 level as the market awaits fresh leads.

“[This] week, the local market may continue to test the 7,000-7,100 resistance range. For catalysts, investors may look towards our upcoming fourth quarter and full-year 2022 GDP data,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

“Strong GDP figures may raise expectations that fourth quarter or full-year 2022 corporate earnings will also be robust, which in turn may help the market get past its current resistance range,” he added.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 GDP data on Jan. 26.

The economy expanded by 7.6% in the third quarter of 2022, bringing the nine-month average to 7.7%.

Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno said last week that the economy likely expanded “much faster” last year versus the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal.

He added that the Philippines will likely grow by around 6.5% this year, even with a potential global economic slowdown.

“The rally slowing towards the end of the week implies that some consolidation is in order, especially if no broad-based catalyst manifests in the coming week,” 2TradeAsia.com said. “Only time will tell with full certainty whether the recent rally back to 7,000 has legs or not. The more important question, at least to strong hands, is whether there are catalysts that can be exhausted in the medium-term to fund a jump towards 7,500.”

“The recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, despite the moderation in the US’ inflation, may weigh on sentiment however,” Philstocks Financial’s Mr. Tantiangco said.

He placed the PSEi’s immediate support at its 10-day exponential moving average and resistance at 7,000-7,100, while 2TradeAsia.com put immediate support at 6,700 and resistance at 7,150-7,200. — J.I.D. Tabile

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