
Updated 14 October 2026. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) traded at $50.23 at 9:32 a.m. ET, down 6.9 percent from Tuesday's $53.96 close (Yahoo Finance), after reporting third-quarter earnings of $0.91 a share on revenue of $29.96 billion (company filing). A $1.2 billion regulatory settlement cut EPS by about 17 cents; even on an adjusted $1.08, the bank missed the roughly $1.10-$1.11 consensus, and revenue fell about $600 million short of the ~$30.58 billion estimate. Verdict: the core lending business grew, but the charge and a weak trading quarter broke a six-quarter run of beats. Reference levels: $46 below, $60 above.
Strip out the settlement and the quarter looks like a bank still benefiting from higher rates. Net interest income grew 8 percent to $16.45 billion, loans grew 6 percent and the bank kept buying back stock at a $6 billion quarterly pace. That is the part of the business that drives most of Bank of America's earnings, and it did not disappoint.
Two things did. First, the $1.2 billion penalty. Investors knew it was coming, but because it cannot be deducted for tax, it falls almost entirely to the bottom line, and it is a reminder that compliance problems carry real costs for a bank of this size. Second, markets revenue. Fixed income, currencies and commodities trading was the weakest line (Newsquawk, TipRanks), the same pattern JPMorgan showed on Tuesday. With adjusted EPS also below the consensus, the miss was not only about the one-off.
Credit was a smaller factor. The $1.27 billion provision for credit losses was set against a loan book that grew 6 percent on average.
Bank of America shares were already under pressure into the print: $53.96 at Tuesday's close against $55.00 at the end of 2025, and down from $56.70 on 25 September (Yahoo Finance). Evercore ISI and Truist both cut their targets to $62 on 1 October, ahead of earnings. A miss on revenue and adjusted EPS, on the same morning that September CPI came in hot and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to about 5.3 percent, removed the reasons to hold the stock through the print. The 52-week range is $46.12 to $65.23.
The question for the rest of the day is whether the bank's call (8:30 a.m. ET) restores confidence in the net interest income path. Higher-for-longer rates support NII; they also raise the risk of a slower economy and weaker trading and dealmaking.
| Scenario | Level | What it needs |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $46 | Weak trading and investment banking persist into the fourth quarter, the Fed hikes again and credit costs rise. The stock retests its 52-week low of $46.12. |
| Base | $49-$55 | NII keeps growing in the high single digits, the settlement is treated as a one-off, and the stock trades between today's level and its pre-earnings range. |
| Bull | $60 | Trading revenue recovers, buybacks continue at $6 billion a quarter and analysts hold their targets. $60 is the lowest target in the pre-earnings S&P Global consensus compiled by StockAnalysis (average $66.59, range $60-$75). |
Our scenario levels are reference points built from the results and price history above, not forecasts.
Quick take: Bank of America's third quarter has a strong core and a messy surface. Net interest income grew 8 percent and buybacks ran at $6 billion, but a $1.2 billion AML settlement and soft trading revenue produced a miss on both lines. At $50.23 the stock sits at the bottom of our $49-$55 base range. Watch the call for the NII outlook: confirmation supports a recovery toward $55-$60, while a weaker trading or credit outlook puts the $46 low in play.
No. Reported EPS was $0.91 and adjusted EPS $1.08, against a consensus of about $1.10-$1.11. Revenue of $29.96 billion also missed the roughly $30.58 billion estimate.
A $1.2 billion non-deductible regulatory settlement, a revenue miss driven by trading and an adjusted EPS miss, on a day when hot CPI data pushed Treasury yields higher.
A settlement with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and FinCEN over the bank's anti-money-laundering and sanctions compliance programmes. It reduced EPS by about 17 cents.
$16.45 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 8 percent from a year earlier.
$8.3 billion in the quarter: $6 billion in share buybacks and $2.2 billion in dividends. The quarterly dividend is $0.32 a share.
That is our bear case, close to the 52-week low of $46.12. It would need weak trading and dealmaking to continue, another Fed hike and rising credit costs.
Before the results, the S&P Global consensus compiled by StockAnalysis averaged $66.59, with a range of $60 to $75. Evercore ISI and Truist cut their targets to $62 on 1 October. Expect revisions after the miss.
Sources: Bank of America third-quarter 2026 supplemental information (Form 8-K, 14 October 2026); AlphaStreet (adjusted EPS, consensus, shareholder returns); TipRanks (NII growth, consensus); 24/7 Wall St (settlement charge, loan growth); CNBC (trading shortfall); Newsquawk (FICC); StockAnalysis/S&P Global (analyst targets); Yahoo Finance (share prices); CoinDesk (Treasury yields).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Share prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before investing.