September 18, 2023
“QQQ at a Crossroads: Bond Yields Challenge Critical Trading Range
The QQQ, a widely-followed exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the Nasdaq, is on the cusp of a critical inflection point. Bond yields have been testing the top of a key trading range, which could have a major impact on the performance of the fund.
Investors have been closely monitoring the performance of the QQQ over the last two weeks, as it has remained in a tight range despite rising stocks. The fund has been somewhat flat over the past few weeks, despite favourable economic conditions and rising tech stocks. However, with the recent rise in bond yields, the QQQ could be poised for a sharp move in either direction.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been stuck in a narrow range since just before the first stimulus package was passed in April 2020. This range has been relatively steady since then, and has recently been tested at the top where it settled at 1.77% on Thursday. If yields continue to move higher, the QQQ could benefit from a boost as investors search for growth opportunities away from bonds.
On the other hand, if yields move too high too fast, it could push stock prices lower and reduce the infrastructure that allows traders to buy and sell stocks. This would likely cause the QQQ to tank, as investors flock to the safety of bond investments.
The QQQ's fate is in the hands of bond yields for now, as they test the upper end of their trading range. Investors should pay close attention to the 10-year Treasury yield in the days and weeks ahead, as it could be the deciding factor behind the QQQ's immediate future.